کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
965952 | 930908 | 2011 | 18 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 individual professional forecasters since 1999, the average absolute forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5-10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts - such as their educational and employment backgrounds - and to geography. In particular, forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. This evidence is indicative that limited attention and heterogeneous priors are present even for anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 33, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 420-437
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 33, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 420-437
نویسندگان
Helge Berger, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher,