کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
966260 | 930942 | 2007 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
We analyze economists' forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the Wall Street Journal. We find that a majority of economists produced unbiased forecasts but that none predicted directions of changes more accurately than chance. Most economists' forecast accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from a random walk model in forecasting the Treasury bill rate, but many are significantly worse in forecasting the Treasury bond rate and the exchange rate. We also find systematic forecast heterogeneity, support for strategic models predicting the industry employing the economist matters, and evidence that economists deviate less from the consensus as they age.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 29, Issue 4, December 2007, Pages 840-854
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 29, Issue 4, December 2007, Pages 840-854
نویسندگان
Karlyn Mitchell, Douglas K. Pearce,