کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
966923 931122 2010 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات ریاضیات کاربردی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions
چکیده انگلیسی
A scoring rule is proper if it elicits an expert's true beliefs as a probabilistic forecast, and it is strictly proper if it uniquely elicits an expert's true beliefs. The value function associated with a (strictly) proper scoring rule is (strictly) convex on any convex set of beliefs. This paper gives conditions on compact sets of possible beliefs Θ that guarantee that every continuous value function on Θ is the value function associated with some strictly proper scoring rule. Compact subsets of many parametrized sets of distributions on Rk satisfy these conditions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Mathematical Economics - Volume 46, Issue 6, 20 November 2010, Pages 1200-1210
نویسندگان
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