Alternative routes of political change: Elites fracture or social mobilization, economic incentives or cultural thresholds

This paper presents a theory of political change that combines structural and strategic elements which determine elites’ degree of fragmentation with cultural factors that exert an influence on the cohesiveness of civil society. Therefore, political change is seen as an outcome of modifications in the bargaining positions of these two segments of society which, in turn, are transformed through economic dynamics and the propagation of certain cultural variants. With evolutionary theorizing and bounded rationality, it is possible to explain the co-evolution of socioeconomic variables, as well as the importance of the historical legacy in establishing different routes of political change.

Research highlights▶ The model can explain a variety of observed outcomes of political change over time. ▶ Cultural evolution allows an alternative approach to political change. ▶ An explanation is offered for the presence of poverty traps and fortune reversion. ▶ The theory of the ‘human development sequence’ is formalized.