Does sickness absence increase the risk of unemployment?

This paper examines whether a worker's sickness absence behaviour influences the risk of becoming unemployed. Swedish panel data are used to estimate the relationship between the incidence and the duration of sick leave and subsequent unemployment. The results indicate that an increase in the number of sick leaves as well as an increase in the duration of sick spells are associated with a higher risk of unemployment. An implication of the results is that less absence-prone workers are more likely to remain employed in a recession, which may partly explain the pro-cyclical pattern of aggregate Swedish sickness absence rates.