کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
974457 932979 2010 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Using recurrence plot analysis to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous stock market crashes
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات فیزیک ریاضی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Using recurrence plot analysis to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous stock market crashes
چکیده انگلیسی

Recurrence Plots are graphical tools based on Phase Space Reconstruction. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is a statistical quantification of RPs. RP and RQA are good at working with non-stationarity and noisy data, in detecting changes in data behavior, in particular in detecting breaks, like a phase transition and in informing about other dynamic properties of a time series. Endogenous Stock Market Crashes have been modeled as phase changes in recent times. Motivated by this, we have used RP and RQA techniques for detecting critical regimes preceding an endogenous crash seen as a phase transition and hence give an estimation of the initial bubble time. We have used a new method for computing RQA measures with confidence intervals. We have also used the techniques on a known exogenous crash to see if the RP reveals a different story or not. The analysis is made on Nifty, Hong Kong AOI and Dow Jones Industrial Average, taken over a time span of about 3 years for the endogenous crashes. Then the RPs of all time series have been observed, compared and discussed. All the time series have been first transformed into the classical momentum divided by the maximum Xmax of the time series over the time window which is considered in the specific analysis. RPs have been plotted for each time series, and RQA variables have been computed on different epochs. Our studies reveal that, in the case of an endogenous crash, we have been able to identify the bubble, while in the case of exogenous crashes the plots do not show any such pattern, thus helping us in identifying such crashes.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 389, Issue 9, 1 May 2010, Pages 1874–1882
نویسندگان
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