A general stochastic model for studying time evolution of transition networks

• A general model describing the dynamics of transition networks is derived.
• A simulation algorithm for studying the network evolutionary behavior is proposed.
• The disease propagation dynamics in different networks generally have different properties but they do share some common features.
• The model provides a good prediction of user growth in the Facebook network.

We consider a class of complex networks whose nodes assume one of several possible states at any time and may change their states from time to time. Such networks represent practical networks of rumor spreading, disease spreading, language evolution, and so on. Here, we derive a model describing the dynamics of this kind of network and a simulation algorithm for studying the network evolutionary behavior. This model, derived at a microscopic level, can reveal the transition dynamics of every node. A numerical simulation is taken as an “experiment” or “realization” of the model. We use this model to study the disease propagation dynamics in four different prototypical networks, namely, the regular nearest-neighbor (RN) network, the classical Erdös–Renyí (ER) random graph, the Watts–Strogátz small-world (SW) network, and the Barabási–Albert (BA) scalefree network. We find that the disease propagation dynamics in these four networks generally have different properties but they do share some common features. Furthermore, we utilize the transition network model to predict user growth in the Facebook network. Simulation shows that our model agrees with the historical data. The study can provide a useful tool for a more thorough understanding of the dynamics networks.