A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

• We provide a new measure for assessing the risk in financial markets.
• This measure is based on the return interval analysis of critical events.
• It gives a critical time for given threshold value and confidence level.
• As an empirical test, we applied the model to data of the Tehran Stock Exchange.

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.