کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
978895 933309 2010 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات فیزیک ریاضی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak
چکیده انگلیسی

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network and reveal the transmission parameters which govern the stochastic spreads over the network from a dataset on an infectious disease outbreak in the early growth phase. Populations in a combination of epidemiological compartment models and a meta-population network model are described by stochastic differential equations. Probability density functions are derived from the equations and used for the maximal likelihood estimation of the topology and parameters. The method is tested with computationally synthesized datasets and the WHO dataset on the SARS outbreak.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications - Volume 389, Issue 21, 1 November 2010, Pages 4755–4768
نویسندگان
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