Male versus female guest-worker migration: Does it matter for fertility in the source country?

Men’s additional income from their guest-worker employment generates a pure income effect, which increases fertility. The timing of women’s higher-wage employment relative to child bearing is crucial for its effect on fertility. If women work abroad during the same time period when they can bear children, their additional income generates a substitution effect, which reduces fertility. In contrast, if the time period when women work abroad does not coincide with the period when they bear children, their additional income generates the income effect on fertility, which is not different from that of men’s additional income.

► Men’s additional income from their guest-worker employment generates a pure income effect, which increases fertility.
► The timing of women’s higher-wage employment relative to child bearing is crucial for its effect on fertility.
► If women work abroad during the same time period when they can bear children, their additional income reduces fertility.
► Otherwise, the effect is not different from that of men’s additional income.