Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?

SummaryChina’s emergence has raised pointed questions about the future of manufacturing in Latin America. This paper looks at this challenge and its implications. It begins by asking: Does manufacturing still matter for Latin America? It argues that the region cannot afford to turn its back to a well-proven road to development. It then moves on to show that endowments, productivity, scale and the government’s role, all work together to make China a formidable competitor. The importance of this challenge is confirmed by an analysis of the trade data, which suggests a small impact so far, but a disquieting trend.