کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
989760 935457 2007 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts
چکیده انگلیسی

SummaryTemporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: World Development - Volume 35, Issue 3, March 2007, Pages 480–497
نویسندگان
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