Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia

SummaryUsing a global general equilibrium trade model, this study analyzes the impact on developing countries, of (1) the dramatic expansion of trade by India, China, and an integrated East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia trade bloc and (2) productivity growth in the region. China is an integral member of the E&SE Asia bloc, with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs, while India is not a part of any trade bloc. The analyses consider the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies, focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries.