Regional differences in the factors that influence China’s energy-related carbon emissions, and potential mitigation strategies

Energy-related carbon emissions in China have increased significantly. To mitigate these emissions, it is necessary to estimate the trends (increase or decrease) and the magnitudes of the influences (tons of carbon emitted) as a result of four causal factors that affect emissions: GDP, economic structure, energy intensity, and fuel mix. To do so, we have divided the study period into three intervals (from 1995 to 2009) based on China’s three most-recent 5-year plans. We then divided China’s 30 provinces into four categories based on the individual and net effects of these factors on carbon emissions. On this basis, we discuss potential strategies for reducing China’s carbon emissions. Increasing GDP caused the largest increase in carbon emissions, whereas decreasing energy intensity significantly decreased emissions. Changes in the economic structure increased emissions, with the economic structure becoming more carbon-intensive; efforts to optimize the fuel mix slightly decreased emissions during the first and third periods, but increased emissions during the second period. Our analysis also revealed differences between provinces and regions, allowing local managers to focus on the most important problems for their area. To reduce future energy-related carbon emissions, China’s economic structure, energy intensity, and fuel mix must all be improved.

► We developed a model to decompose carbon emissions into four causal factors.
► We estimated the directions and magnitudes of the influences of four factors.
► China’s 30 provinces were classified based on the effects of these factors.
► We discussed potential strategies for mitigating China’s carbon emissions.