Scenario for growth of electricity in India

India's GDP has been growing quite fast in recent past and it is forecast that it would continue to do so in the coming several decades. To realize the growth in GDP, it is necessary that corresponding growth in demand of primary energy as well as electricity is estimated and plans are made to meet the demand. Our estimate indicates that even after recognizing that energy intensity of GDP would continue to decline as in the past, the total electricity generation by the middle of the century would be an order of magnitude higher than the generation in the fiscal year 2002–2003. This calls for developing a strategy for growth of electricity generation based on a careful examination of all issues related to sustainability particularly abundance of available energy resources, diversity of sources of energy supply and technologies, security of supplies and self-sufficiency. This paper presents a scenario for growth of electricity in India. To meet the projected demand, the paper presents a strategy, which incorporates, wherever available, recommendations of various organs of the Government of India. It is observed that in order to limit cumulative energy import during the next 50 years to about 30%, the nuclear contribution towards electricity generation has to increase from the present 3% to about a quarter of the total. For the nuclear power to play this role, the programme of the Department of Atomic Energy to augment nuclear installed capacity to 20 GWe by 2020 based on a mix of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Light Water Reactors (LWRs) and Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) should be completed and the R&D necessary to set up U–Pu metal-based FBRs of short doubling time and associated fuel reprocessing technologies should also be completed in the next 15 years.