Planning the European power sector transformation: The REmap modelling framework and its insights

IRENA's renewable energy roadmap (REmap) programme enables the assessment of the renewable energy potential at sector and country level for the year 2030 based on a unique methodology that has been applied to 70 countries. This paper presents findings of REmap for the European power sector where the REmap methodology is complemented with a power system dispatch model, called the REpower Europe model. Results show that in 2030 under REmap, gross electricity demand in the EU-28 can be met with a renewable energy share of 50% and a variable renewable energy (VRE) share of 29%. This would achieve a 43% reduction in the EU power sector's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions relative to 2005 levels. Although achieving higher renewable electricity shares by 2030 is effective in reducing emissions, significant operational challenges would be encountered to realise the potential identified in REmap. Attention needs to be paid to interconnector congestion, curtailment of VRE and operation of dispatchable generators by power system planners to achieve this potential. While the strength of the REmap approach is transparency that allows engagement with energy planning stakeholders, the key to its effective application is the right balance of model complexity and operational ease. This paper shows the insights that can be gained by leveraging the approach and that valuable policy insights are drawn by using a suite of modelling approaches.