European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports

The widening gap between EU gas production and consumption may require an 87% increase of import volumes between 2006 and 2030, and there are great uncertainties regarding the amounts of gas that can be expected from new suppliers. The potential of increased production from Norway and Algeria is limited; hence, Russia is likely to play a crucial part of meeting the anticipated growing gas demand of the EU. A field-by-field study of 83 giant gas fields shows that the major producing Russian gas fields are in decline, and by 2013 much larger supplies from the Yamal Peninsula and the Shtokman field will be needed in order to avoid a decline in production. Gas from fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East will mainly be directed to the Asian and Pacific Rim markets, thereby limiting its relevance to the European and CIS markets. As a result, the maximum export increase to the European and CIS markets amounts only to about 45% for the period 2015–2030. The discourse surrounding the EU’s dependence on Russian gas should thus not only be concerned with geopolitics, but also with the issue of resource limitations.

Research highlights
► Natural gas production in the Nadym Pur Taz region (Western Siberia) will start to decline within a few years.
► New production from the Yamal peninsula is critical to ensure gas exports to Europe.
► Additional production in East Siberia and the Far East will not be available for the European market.
► Rapid gas demand growth in China might also lead to competition for gas from Western Siberia.