کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
996911 936318 2009 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government
چکیده انگلیسی

Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 37, Issue 5, May 2009, Pages 1767–1781
نویسندگان
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