کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
997539 1481449 2013 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning
چکیده انگلیسی

An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 29, Issue 2, April–June 2013, Pages 311–321
نویسندگان
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