MODIS time-series imagery for forest disturbance detection and quantification of patch size effects

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m single day surface reflectance (MOD09GQK) and 16-day composite gridded vegetation index data (MOD13Q1) were used to detect forest harvest disturbance between 2000 and 2004 in northern Maine. A MODIS multi-date Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forest change detection map was developed from each MODIS data set. A Landsat TM/ETM+ change detection map was developed as a reference to assess the effect of disturbed forest patch size on classification accuracy (agreement) and disturbed area estimates of MODIS. The MODIS single day and 16-day composite data showed no significant difference in overall classification accuracies. However, the 16-day NDVI change detection map had marginally higher overall classification accuracy (at 85%), but had significantly lower detection accuracy related to disturbed patch size than the single day NDVI change detection map. The 16-day composite NDVI data achieved 69% detection accuracy and the single day NDVI achieved 76% when the disturbed patch size was greater than 20 ha. The detection accuracy increased to approximately 90% for both data sets when the patch size exceeded 50 ha. The R2 (range 0.6 to 0.9) and slope (range 0.5 to 0.9) of regression lines between Landsat and MODIS data (based on forest disturbance percent of township) increased with the mean disturbed patch size of each township. The 95% confidence intervals of forest disturbance percent estimate for each township were narrow with less than 1% of each township at the mean MODIS forest disturbance level.