The temporal series of the New Guinea 29 April 1996 aftershock sequence

The observed temporal series of the shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution (the aftershock decay power law, n(t) = K·(t + c)−p + K1) and of a stochastic contribution (the random fluctuations around a mean value represented by the above mentioned power law). If the decay can be modeled as a non-stationary Poissonian process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K·(t + c)−p + K1, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)·Δt, with a standard deviation σ=n(t)⋅Δt.