کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1017623 940308 2014 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Risk, uncertainty, and heuristics
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
خطر، عدم قطعیت و اکتشافات
کلمات کلیدی
عدم قطعیت، اکتشافی سریع و خسته کننده، تصمیم گیری کسب و کار، پیچیدگی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی

Nearly a century ago, Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty with respect to the nature of decisions made in a business enterprise. He associated generating economic profit with making entrepreneurial decisions in the face of fundamental uncertainties. This uncertainty is complex because it cannot be reliably hedged unless it is reducible to risk. In making sense of uncertainty, the mathematics of probability that is used for risk calculations may lose relevance. Fast-and-frugal heuristics, on the other hand, provide robust strategies that can perform well under uncertainty. The present paper describes the structure and nature of such heuristics and provides conditions under which each class of heuristics performs successfully. Dealing with uncertainty requires knowledge but not necessarily an exhaustive use of information. In many business situations, effective heuristic decision-making deliberately ignores information and hence uses fewer resources. In an uncertain world, less often proves to be more.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Business Research - Volume 67, Issue 8, August 2014, Pages 1671–1678
نویسندگان
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