Global uncertainty analysis for RRKM/master equation based kinetic predictions: A case study of ethanol decomposition

A precise understanding of the accuracy of reaction rate constants, whether determined experimentally or theoretically, is of considerable importance to kinetic modelers. While the uncertainties of experimentally measured rate constants are commonly provided, the “error bars” of computed (temperature- and pressure-dependent) rate constants are rarely evaluated rigorously. In this work, global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is applied to the propagation of the uncertainties in the input parameters (e.g. barrier heights, frequencies and collisional energy transfer parameters et al.) to those in the rate constants computed by the RRKM/master equation method for the decomposition of ethanol. This case study provides a systematic exploration of the effect of temperature and pressure on the parametric uncertainties in RRKM/master equation calculations for a prototypical single-well multiple-channel dissociation. In the high pressure limit, the uncertainties in the theoretical predictions are controlled by the uncertainties in the input parameters involved in the transition state theory calculations, with the most important ones being those describing the energetics of the decomposition. At lower pressures, where fall-off is important, the uncertainties in the collisional energy transfer parameters play a significant role, particularly for the higher energy of the two channels. Remarkably, the competition between dissociation and collisional excitation leads to uncertainties of more than a factor of 100 in the predictions for the higher energy channel. These large uncertainties are related to the need for large-scale single-collision-induced transitions in energy in order to produce the higher energy products in the low pressure limit. The present study illustrates the value of detailed qualitative and quantitative studies of the uncertainties in theoretical kinetics predictions.