کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1037519 943932 2008 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa, Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی مواد دانش مواد (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa, Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty
چکیده انگلیسی

An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in Northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes: water delivery from the catchment; local pond storage; and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of potential population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Historical precipitation estimates from a Global Circulation Model, with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions during parts of the EBA could have risen to ∼6000 and may have been higher in wet years. However, palaeoclimatic proxies also suggest prolonged droughts in the EBA; and during these periods the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Archaeological Science - Volume 35, Issue 3, March 2008, Pages 517–529
نویسندگان
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