Modeling and prediction of natural gas fracking pad landscapes in the Marcellus Shale region, USA

• Natural gas fracking pad sites intrude initial landscapes and ecosystems in the Marcellus Shale region.
• Natural gas fracking pad sites are not randomly placed.
• Landscape and environmental variables drive spatial distributions of invasive fracking pads.
• Spatial distribution and prediction of fracking pads can be modeled by using spatial logistical regression.

Natural gas fracking pad sites, as a type of industrial landscape, have been blooming up in Marcellus Shale region especially within the State of Pennsylvania in the last few years. However, no study has explored the driving landscape and environmental variables of fracking pad sites, and how gas fracking pads as a specific landscape spread out in the Marcellus Shale region. Using the Washington County, Pennsylvania, USA as the study area, this paper proposes a novel GIS landscape modeling approach to model the relationships between landscape variables and natural gas fracking pad sites. The impacts of significant landscape variables on natural gas fracking pad sites are assessed. Statistic diagnostics of spatial logistic regression modeling find significant landscape variables of elevation, slope, and land use land cover. Higher elevation will result in higher probability to be fracking pad sites, while deeper slopes will result in a lower probability to be fracking pad sites. Natural gas fracking pad sites do not randomly intrude the initial landscapes, while land use land cover experiences different invasive risks of natural gas fracking, and in the order of open water, developed land, barren land, forest land, shrub land, grassland, agriculture land, and wetland, the probability of being intruded by natural gas fracking sites increases at 3.76%. This landscape model finally is used to predict natural gas fracking pad sites. The predicted spatial distribution provides significant insight for landscape and natural resources regulation, land use administration, transportation and urban planning, and ecosystem and environment conservations.