Are master plans effective in limiting development in China's disaster-prone areas?

The effectiveness of urban master plans in limiting development in a disaster-prone area of China was empirically investigated by measuring cities’ land-cover changes against their master plans. If a master plan serves as guidance for urban polices that reduce property loss from earthquakes, floods, landslides, land subsidence, and rises in sea level, it will substantially limit urban development in areas at risk from environmental hazards. An environmental risk map weighted toward valuable forms of land cover was generated using geospatial databases of China's Yangtze River Delta region. Based on this data, the effects of five master plan measures—ring-road patterns, block size, the area of urban built-up lands, the locations of industrial sites, and preservation zoning—were tested using the multiple regression method. Cities showing a high degree of compliance, in particular with preservation zoning, had a smaller amount of urban land located in high-risk zones, on average, by 14 km2. Among the top ten cities exposed to disproportionately high risks, eight were towns and only two were cities like Huzhou and Kunshan.

► The effectiveness of adopting urban master plans to limit development in disaster-prone areas was empirically tested.
► Environmental risk modeling was conducted to estimate the cumulative scope of urban land located in hazardous areas.
► Master plans, especially when urban patterns show compliance with preservation zoning, effectively limit development.
► The effect of master plans was not significant in a region vulnerable to high risks from multiple environmental hazards.
► Locational adjustment through planning may avoid property losses from hazards during a city's rapid development phase.