Patterns, drivers and impacts of urban growth—A study from Cairns, Queensland, Australia from 1952 to 2031

There is lack of information on the patterns, drivers and impacts of urban growth. Such information is essential for planning and managing sustainable cities. We therefore investigated past and prospective land use changes in Cairns, Queensland, Australia, using aerial photo mosaics from 1952 and 2008, and the proposed urban footprint for 2031. We then analysed and related these changes to their drivers and impacts. The results from analysing past changes revealed not only the loss of important coastal lowland habitats and agricultural land but also the loss of evolutionary landscape relicts such as Holocene beach ridges. Our prospective analysis shows that if the proposed urban footprint for 2031 is implemented, further agricultural land will be lost to urban development in Cairns. The loss of important habitats including areas of high ecological significance within the urban footprint is highly likely due to increased pressures to develop land for urban use within this designated area. These results emphasise the need to critically review and potentially give more weight to the protection and management of important habitats and landscape features within urban footprints, particularly in regions, whose economy is largely built on the amenities provided by the natural environment.