Change trajectories and key biotopes—Assessing landscape dynamics and sustainability

This paper presents a methodological synthesis of two congruent approaches into a common landscape change trajectory analysis and the assessment of landscape dynamics and sustainability. The emphasis of the analysis is on the retrospective relationship between the past and the present-day landscape patterns and associated key biotopes. The example key biotopes, oak woodlands and grasslands, represent valuable habitats in the hemiboreal landscapes of Finland and Sweden. The paper presents a conceptual stepwise approach for change trajectory analysis utilising multiple spatio-temporal data and techniques available in image processing and geographical information systems (GIS) including the following steps: (I) specification of spatio-temporal data and their representation of target objects, (II) the choice of direct or indirect change trajectory analysis, (III) hierarchical structuring of landscape information, (IV) compilation of landscape information into a GIS database, and (V) identification of paths for landscape change trajectory analysis. In this case study, we have focused on three interlinked trajectory analysis approaches, and their role in the assessment of landscape sustainability from a potential biodiversity perspective. We conclude that proposed landscape change trajectory analysis can improve the assessment of the key biotopes as well as present-day landscape characteristics, in maintaining biodiversity and related ecological values by providing information on landscape stability, continuity, change processes and boundary dynamics. This approach can be useful in the assessment of natural capital, but requires data-specific and context sensitive data processing and analysis solutions. The results should be interpreted as an approximation and generalisation of the spatio-temporal complexity of landscape reality and therefore be used in conjunction with additional habitat function measures.