Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector

► We explore methodological strengths and weaknesses of three climate risk assessments, including the treatment of uncertainty. ► Methods strongly tied to climate outputs are subject to much epistemic uncertainty, but yield insights about climate threats and opportunities. ► Methods that build on local knowledge provide more tractable research questions but outcomes tend to apply to near term planning horizons. ► Consideration of both social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.