Investigating the regional-scale pattern of agricultural land abandonment in the Swiss mountains: A spatial statistical modelling approach

In many European mountain regions, agricultural land abandonment and the related consequences for the environment are issues of increasing concern. During the last few decades, natural forest re-growth has steadily replaced agricultural land in the Swiss mountains. This is a region where forms of traditional cultivation have preserved unique landscapes and habitats of high ecological value. The aim of this study was to investigate the recent regional-scale pattern of agricultural land abandonment, as indicated by forest re-growth, in the Swiss mountains. For this, we developed multivariate spatial statistical models on the basis of mountain-wide land-use change data, evaluated between the 1980s and 1990s, and selected geo-physical and socio-economic variables. Results show that regions with shallow soils, steep slopes and under-developed road infrastructure were favoured in terms of land abandonment and forest re-growth. These regions were also characterised by low proportions of full-time farms. In some regions, strong labour markets were related to higher abandonment rates, but this is not a general trend in Swiss mountainous regions. We found no relationship between land abandonment and migration, which contrasts with findings in other European mountain regions. One model suggests a spatial ‘spillover’ effect, causing similar abandonment rates in adjacent regions, although this could not be proven in this study. We conclude that decision-makers should consider non-linearity in the pattern of land abandonment and the fact that part-time farming is related to land abandonment when designing measures to react to land abandonment and its consequences.