Forecasts of health care utilization related to pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenza in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, France

The realistic scenario correctly estimated the temporal distribution of GP and hospitalized cases but overestimated the number of cases admitted to ICU. Obtaining more robust data for parameters estimation - particularly the rate of ICU admission among the population that the authors recommend to use - may provide better forecasts.