Modeling increased demand of energy for air conditioners and consequent CO2 emissions to minimize health risks due to climate change in India

Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ∼750,000 GWh to ∼1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO2 emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO2 emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.