Landscape-ecological forecasts from computational models and palaeoreconstructions (using the Volga basin as an example)

Presented is the predictive topo-ecological concept, based on empirical-statistical models of geosystems. Using the geosystems of the Volga basins as an example, this study considers the mechanisms of local and regional response to the global warming expected in the 21st century. A general process of “savannization” of mixed and broad-lived forests is predicted for the Middle band of the Russian Plain with the development of the thermoarid climatic trend. The prognostic non-representativity of the known palaeographical scenarios of the warm epochs during the Pleistocene and Holocene is demonstrated.