Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: Scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments

► We generate a set of risk scenarios for Florida based on existing long-term hurricane projections. ► Scenarios span a wide range; from losses halving, to more than four-fold increase by 2090. ► Increases in average risk tend to be accompanied by increases in the volatility of risk. ► Natural variability is likely to be the dominant driver of risk over the coming decade. ► We draw conclusions for the needs from climate science to better inform adaptation.