کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1055108 946878 2007 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم محیط زیست علوم زیست محیطی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty
چکیده انگلیسی

Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global Environmental Change - Volume 17, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 37–46
نویسندگان
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