کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1055111 946878 2007 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم محیط زیست علوم زیست محیطی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios
چکیده انگلیسی

Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions continue about how best to use them. We describe a new analytic method, based on robust decision making, for suggesting narrative scenarios that emerge naturally from a decision analytic framework. We identify key scenarios as those most important to the choices facing decision makers and find such cases with statistical analysis of datasets created by multiple runs of computer simulation models. The resulting scenarios can communicate quantitative judgments about uncertainty as well as support a well-defined decision process without many drawbacks of current approaches. We describe an application to long-term water planning in California.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global Environmental Change - Volume 17, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 73–85
نویسندگان
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