Exploring the causal relationship between bicycle choice and trip chain pattern

• We explore relationship and decision order between choices of bicycle and trip chain.
• More bicycle uses are found in subsistence trip chains than non-subsistence chains.
• Most of trip chains are planned before making the decision on bicycle choice.
• Most cyclers first decide trip chain and most-mode-choice first travelers do not ride.
• Individual, household and trip attributes are found to be related to decision order.

Choices of bicycle and trip chain are important decisions in an individual's daily travel activities. Little is known about the causal relationship between the two decisions. It is interesting to ask if a decision on bicycle choice is made prior to the determination on a trip chain, or is dependent on the pre-determined chain pattern. This study aims to explore the relationship between the choices of bicycle and trip chain and capture the order of decision between them. Based on the survey data from a medium-sized Chinese city, the co-evolutionary approach with logit-modeling framework was estimated for the study purpose. Results show that there are more bicycle uses in the subsistence trip chains as compared to these non-subsistence ones. Considering the interaction between the two decisions improves the predicting accuracy of both bicycle choice and chain choice. In most cases, a trip chain is determined prior to a decision on bicycle choice, especially when the chain contains subsistence activities. For travelers who currently using a bicycle, most of them first decide the chain type and then choose a bicycle accordingly. Most of travelers who first determine the trip mode do not consider using a bicycle. We also estimate a model to predict the decision process of travelers. The order of decision is mainly impacted by the individual and household characteristics as well as the travel attributes. Findings of this study are discussed to assist the development of policies to promote cycling in urban areas.