Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case

Vehicular fleet forecasting has a strategic value for governmental planning management and assessment, for economic policies and environmental programs, but particularly to estimate future emission inventories and fuel demand projections. In order to determine the forecasts of detailed vehicular fleets, those comprise the overall car stock and their associated pollutant emissions and fuel demand, specific curves of retirement models were used in addition to econometric analysis. To obtain forecasts for the year 2015, this methodology was applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area case using data since 1990. The validation of the models applied was done through economic data from 2004, 2006 and 2008. The results of the forecasts carried out displayed high confidence levels, above 95% for the medium term. The exercise with the forecasted fleets produced an expected increase of around 21% of criteria pollutants and 31% in greenhouse gases emissions due to vehicular activity, from 2007 to 2015. Further, an increase in fuel demand of around 22.9% gasoline and 27.1% diesel in the same period was estimated, which are lower than those officially projected. Finally, a specific coefficient β to the Gompertz equation applied to Mexico City case was obtained.

► Fleet forecasting was improved combining retirement and econometric models.
► Retirement Curve Models were developed to be applied to Mexico City case.
► Future vehicular fleets for Mexico City Metropolitan Area were forecasted.
► Vehicular emission and fuel demand for the 2007–2015 period were estimated.
► A specific value of the β parameter in the Gompertz function was updated.