Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand

To be best prepared for tomorrow's cities we need to forecast urban travel demand. To this end, this study calibrates an urban travel demand model, which uses the principal structural variables that have been identified in the literature. It uses a robust econometric method, which has been little applied in the sphere of transportation. The results show that two variables stand out from the others: the user cost of transport – by private car and public transport – and urban density. It is surprising, but explicable with the available data, that the demand functions estimated for a given country are independent from the group of countries to which it belongs.