کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10687893 1017962 2016 36 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Estimation of computer waste quantities using forecasting techniques
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی میزان تلفات کامپیوتر با استفاده از تکنیک های پیش بینی
کلمات کلیدی
تولید زباله الکترونیکی، طول عمر، پیش بینی، اتصالات توزیع،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
Technology changes rapidly over years providing continuously more options for computer alternatives and making life easier for economic, intra-relation or any other transactions. However, the introduction of new technology “pushes” old Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products to non-use. E-waste is defined as the quantities of ICT products which are not in use and is bivariate function of the sold quantities, and the probability that specific computers quantity will be regarded as obsolete. In this paper, an e-waste generation model is presented, which is applied to the following regions: Western and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Japan/Australia/New Zealand, North and South America. Furthermore, cumulative computer sales were retrieved for selected countries of the regions so as to compute obsolete computer quantities. In order to provide robust results for the forecasted quantities, a selection of forecasting models, namely (i) Bass, (ii) Gompertz, (iii) Logistic, (iv) Trend model, (v) Level model, (vi) AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA), and (vii) Exponential Smoothing were applied, depicting for each country that model which would provide better results in terms of minimum error indices (Mean Absolute Error and Mean Square Error) for the in-sample estimation. As new technology does not diffuse in all the regions of the world with the same speed due to different socio-economic factors, the lifespan distribution, which provides the probability of a certain quantity of computers to be considered as obsolete, is not adequately modeled in the literature. The time horizon for the forecasted quantities is 2014-2030, while the results show a very sharp increase in the USA and United Kingdom, due to the fact of decreasing computer lifespan and increasing sales.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Cleaner Production - Volume 112, Part 4, 20 January 2016, Pages 3072-3085
نویسندگان
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