Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning

This paper develops a framework, building on backcasting from sustainable outcomes, or more sustainable outcomes, in combination with econometric modelling to arrive at the outcomes. To reach long-term successful objectives by introducing new transport alternatives or services, econometric modelling is suggested as a suitable tool for investigating the presumptive behaviour of key-players. In the need for deriving individual preferences, behavioural modelling can be applied as an essential “pathfinder” in the backcasting framework. The framework is discussed in relation to an office district outside Stockholm, where IT-companies provide efficient transport alternatives for their employees. The long-term vision among the leaders of the companies is to achieve an improved environmental profile, in parallel with reduced travel costs and improved working conditions for the employees, by offering alternatives to private car, taxi and long-distance travel.