The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth's climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California's Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain's. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.