A Case-Control Study of Risk and Protective Factors for Incarceration Among Urban Youth

PurposeEach day in the United States, approximately 100,000 youth are under correctional supervision. The purpose of this study is to examine the early risk and protective factors for incarceration using a high-risk sample of urban youth.MethodsData were obtained from 2,165 (54 who were incarcerated) youth who participated in Project Northland Chicago. Participants were matched exactly on gender, race/ethnicity, and aggressive behavior in sixth grade. Bivariate and multivariate conditional logistic regression analyses were used to examine the risk and protective factors present at sixth grade that increased the odds of incarceration at 12th grade.ResultsThe early risk factors for incarceration were age (odds ratio [OR] = 2.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71–3.69), having been sent to detention (1–3 times: OR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.15–4.37; 4+ times: OR = 3.49; 95% CI 1.40–8.72), and the number of hours spent participating in a sport (OR = 1.11; 95% CI 1.03–1.20). Substance use was not significantly related to incarceration after adjusting for other behavioral and contextual risk factors.ConclusionsGeneral problem behaviors (nonaggressive) strongly predict incarceration among at-risk youth. Implications for prevention programs are discussed.