On popular response to violence during insurgencies

Population behavior is a key factor in the evolution and outcome of insurgencies. This behavior is affected by the violence exerted by the insurgents and the regime. In this paper we model the effect of targeted (i.e., coercion) and misguided (i.e., collateral casualties) violence on the behavior of the population. It is shown that excess violence and poor targeting accuracy may lead to situations where a population’s support for a certain side will vanish.