Acceptance, values, and probability

• This essay argues that personal probabilities can be objects of acceptance and rejection.
• That in turn suggests that Bayesian analyses of confirmation fall within the scope of the argument from inductive risk.
• It thereby raises the question of the role of value judgments in Bayesian statistics and confirmation.

This essay makes a case for regarding personal probabilities used in Bayesian analyses of confirmation as objects of acceptance and rejection. That in turn entails that personal probabilities are subject to the argument from inductive risk, which aims to show non-epistemic values can legitimately influence scientific decisions about which hypotheses to accept. In a Bayesian context, the argument from inductive risk suggests that value judgments can influence decisions about which probability models to accept for likelihoods and priors. As a consequence, if the argument from inductive risk is sound, then non-epistemic values can affect not only the level of evidence deemed necessary to accept a hypothesis but also degrees of confirmation themselves.