Probabilistic thermal conductivity analysis of dense stabilized zirconia ceramics

► We have performed a probability based analysis of thermal conductivity in dense zirconia ceramics. ► This approach takes into account the scatter in material properties and geometrical variations. ► Three representative volume elements have been constructed, at different scales. ► A thermal homogenization technique has been used to evaluate the effective thermal conductivity. ► The methodology was successfully validated on a series of dense yttria stabilized zirconia samples.