Local stress evolution in thermal barrier coating system during isothermal growth of irregular oxide layer

► An analytical model to predict local stress evolution in TBC system ► TGO inward thickening, time-dependent growth strains and coatings creep are considered. ► Local stress near TGO convex portion is investigated and its implication in crack initiation is discussed. ► Competition between through-thickness and lateral growth strains in the generation of TGO stress ► Converse effects of creep in TGO and TC layers on TGO hoop stress