Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States

• The aim was to predict the market share of electric vehicles in United States.
• An agent-based model, Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration tool was developed.
• Market share uncertainties are modeled using Exploratory Modeling and Analysis.
• Electric vehicle market shares could reach up to 30% of new sales by 2030.

One of the most promising strategies recommended for increasing energy security and for mitigating transportation sector emissions is to support alternative fuel technologies, including electric vehicles. However, there is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the market penetration of electric vehicles that must be accounted for in order to achieve the current market share goals. This paper aims to address these inherent uncertainties and to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the United States for the year 2030, using the developed Electric Vehicle Regional Market Penetration tool. First, considering their respective inherent uncertainties, the vehicle attributes are evaluated for different vehicle types, including internal combustion engine, gasoline hybrid, and three different electric vehicle types. In addition, an agent-based model is developed to identify the market shares of each of the studied vehicles. Finally, market share uncertainties are modeled using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis approach. The government subsidies play a vital role in the market adoption of electric vehicle and, when combined with the word-of-mouth effect, may achieve electric vehicle market share of up to 30% of new sales in 2030 on average, with all-electric vehicles having the highest market share among the electric vehicle options.