Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

• A bottom-up model was created and used to forecast long term energy demand of Croatian transport sector.
• Four different long term energy demand scenarios were created using the model.
• If comparing the two most extreme scenarios, energy savings can go up to 59% in the year 2050.

The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.