Sensitivity of district heating system operation to heat demand reductions and electricity price variations: A Swedish example

In the future, district heating companies in Sweden must adapt to energy efficiency measures in buildings and variable fuel and electricity prices. Swedish district heating demands are expected to decrease by 1–2% per year and electricity price variations seem to be more unpredictable in the future. A cost-optimisation model of a Swedish local district heating system is constructed using the optimisation modelling tool MODEST. A scenario for heat demand changes due to increased energy efficiency in buildings, combined with the addition of new buildings, is studied along with a sensitivity analysis for electricity price variations. Despite fears that heat demand reductions will decrease co-generation of clean electricity and cause increased global emissions, the results show that anticipated heat demand changes do not increase the studied system's primary energy use or global CO2 emissions. The results further indicate that the heat production plants and the fuels used within the system have crucial importance for the environmental impact of district heat use. Results also show that low seasonal variations in electricity price levels with relatively low winter prices promote the use of electric heat pumps. High winter prices on the other hand promote co-generation of heat and electricity in CHP plants.

► A MODEST optimisation model of the Uppsala district heating system is built.
► The impact of heat demand change on heat and electricity production is examined.
► An electricity price level sensitivity analysis for district heating is performed.
► Heat demand changes do not increase the primary energy use or global CO2 emissions.
► Low winter prices promote use of electric heat pumps for district heating production.